Today Bush will give his State of the Union (“strong?” probably not. “Skeptical,” maybe), and amidst much sleight-of-hand, will continue to blame Iran for smuggling weapons into Iraq to destabilize the country. Ie, it’s their fault, not mine. LAT has a good piece today critiquing this claim, noting that there’s really very little evidence of this link, and that the administration refuses to show what evidence it actually has.

A familiar pattern. Make threatening claims. Produce vague and misleading evidence. Invade. Anybody worried?

Apparently there’s little to no evidence of Iranian-made guns appearing in Iraq. There is some sign that explosive devices may be coming from Iran, but in Shiite areas, not the Sunni regions where those are more typically used. Experts say even those could well be coming from other countries, or from arms smugglers, rather than Iranian state policy.

Please, please let the reality-based community exert some influence this time.